INTEL ANALYSIS - ISIS-K THREAT
I know that everyone is talking about this alleged ISIS-K threat to attack hospitals in the US with VBIEDs, so let me address it.
The original reports come from 2 "OSINT" accounts that allege that they saw a report from a "private intelligence agency" called Command Eleven. Neither me nor anyone else in my line of work has ever heard of Command Eleven before this report, which should be evidence enough. It's worth noting that Command Eleven is INCREDIBLY similar to Commando 13, an allegedly ficticious private military company that reports to the equally (allegedly) ficticious Duke of Montana.
Now, everyone on Twitter is saying that a SECOND "private intelligence agency" is reporting the same thing. What they fail to report is that the alleged second agency is reporting as it's source THE COMMAND ELEVEN REPORT. In other words, this isn't confirmation at all. This is a common problem in the OSINT world. Confirmation requires a SECOND source, not a second one reporting the original.
The claim is that they have "chatter" from inside multiple ISIS-K camps in Afghanistan that they have infiltrated personnel into the US via the southern border. WHile that seems perfectly credible, what isn't credible is that this is just common mess hall talk inside an ISIS-K camp. It isn't believable on that basis.
Another unbelievable part is that these alleged "private" agencies have infiltrated bases that the Five Eyes can't. Highly unlikely.
My analysis is:
1. Best Case: This report is completely made up to create name awareness for a startup private intelligence firm.
2. Middle Case: This report is completely made up by a hostile intelligence service to stir up more tension in the US leading to more instability.
3. Worst Case: The information is actually credible and an attack is possible (highly unlikely).
4. Even Worst Case: The US Intelligence Community planted this story and intends on a false flag to enable them to retain the surveillance power they currently hold. (more likely than #3)
COAs: Your best course of action is to not panic, but understand that there is a risk that this is real and remain aware. Alter travel plans to avoid hospitals or be vigilant if you must visit a hospital.